5/04/2011

EVE Central Bank: Doing too much or too little?

I break my silence at the behest of an esteemed blogger at Ecliptic Rift. This post departs from my usual iteration of misadventures and takes aim at the manipulative monetary policies of a company that ‘excels’ at entertaining us. Let’s talk about our economy, tinfoils off.

Traditionally PLEX prices are highly fluctuant when each expansion is introduced.

Tyrannis
Period: May 26, 2010

Incursion
Period: Phase One November 30, 2010 / Phase Two December 25, 2010 / Phase Three January 18, 2011

However biannual market events are not enough to maintain PLEX quotes. This is where PLEX for Good enters the picture. I present exhibit 1, a year long price history graph of PLEX, taken from Jita.

Exhibit 1 - PLEX price history
Source: EVE Online market data

PLEX for Good
Pakistan 
Period: September 15 through October 6, 2010
Scale: No results published

Haiti
Period: January29 through February 15, 2011

Japan
Period: March 14 through March 31, 2011
Scale: 2,549 PLEX

US
Period: 3 May through 16 May 2011
Scale: Results pending

Notice how CCP deviously made use of good will to forward its own agenda. This brings me to what I really want to say. Do not give away your cash. There are two reasons why players should not donate their PLEX.

First and foremost, we should refrain from giving away our money to CCP on moral grounds. How does a commercial enterprise justify donations by imploring on the conscience of players? “While you sit comfortably in front of your computer, millions are suffering. Be an internet spaceship hero and donate money. Oh, and hey, let us take credit for it.” No matter how noble the cause, if one truly wants to donate there are agencies galore in specific fields, arguably with less controversy and more impartiality than the Red Cross. As far as I know, CCP did not publish the results for Pakistan, nor did they ever fully disclose how much money they spent on ‘handling costs.’ I myself usually contribute to the World Food Program and Doctors Without Borders. No one, especially not a for-profit company should claim acknowledgment for charity paid for by its benefactors.

Second is, of course, our economy. Whether you live in high, low, null sec or wormholes the invisible hand reaches far and wide. Only the hand present is one that is short-sighted, irresponsible and pandering to certain parties with vested interests.

A larger threat lies in the lack of proper tools to control the market. In the real world, we have policies that are flexible in their implementation of different rates such as interest or tax, and a monetary authority that controls the supply of money. They mean little in EVE either because matters are almost entirely ignored for years or when they implement change, one can always expect debacle. CCP intervenes in asset value modification and supply of raw materials with little insight to ramifications, which I assure you, always follows suit. The company simply doesn’t have a buffer or punitive measures to use against speculative powers within the game.

As for ISK, there is no limit to the flow of cash. Concord for one is printing digital numbers 23/7. RMT exploiters are a testament to this broken, yet perfectly normal MMO mechanic. In an effort to sustain PLEX prices high enough to compete with RMT, CCP has contributed to the very vice they were meant to deter: inflation. Take a look at exhibit two.

Exhibit 2 - Top sinks and facuets in EVE
Source: QEN for 2010

EVE Central Bank’s statement is especially touching in this regard:
EVE Central Bank has been monitoring the money supply closely and is becoming increasingly concerned about the rate of growth in the total money supply and the subsequent risk of inflation increase. The bank has therefore proposed that in 2011 there should be a focus on increasing ISK sinks in order to curb potential inflation. – QEN4 2010, p.20
The great misfortune here is that of the obscurity of players, which in turn is a boon to CCP. The underclass are caught standing next tidal waves they are not even aware of. A small circle of bourgeois privy to exclusive information take advantage of these tides to multiply their wealth. At times it amazes me how a game could mimic the failings of reality. If EVE Central Bank were an institute, its managers should be put to trial for negligence and sued for corruption. Below is a brief history of what EVE Central Bank has recently been up to.

After letting a contingent of exploiters to hoard ISK by self-destructing insured battleships, they decide tackle the issue. On May 26, insurance policy changed to reflect market trends putting an end to unbalanced mineral supply. Yet this was only a tip of the iceberg. In August we saw the stealth nerf of drone mineral loot. DRF, or Drone Russian Federation, the main supplier of Nocxium took a tremendous hit to their business when this happened. As supply toppled, so did the economy. 2010 saw another Nocxium spike when the Noctis was introduced. This compounded with strategic mishaps by DRF itself lead to an exodus of renter corps that further aggravated inflation in the entire universe.

Exhibit 3 - Nocxium price history
Source: EVE Online market data

Planetary Interaction changed the market overnight. Fuel, previously supplied by NPCs, turned into player-made commodities. Costs skyrocketed 552 percent. This spike immediately spilled over to POS resources. Technetium is the winner among the crowd due to its prestigious rarity bearing the curse of monopoly, giving alliances all the more reason to battle over limited resources. Yet another factor to inflation. Turn back the clock to February 14, your gaze at Uemon. Contest over a Technetium moon culminated to a clash in which twelve titans and seven supercarriers were destroyed. If you cannot grasp its importance look at exhibit 4. When 300% growth per year is at stake for a valuable resource, alliances will throw everything at each other. With massive ISK sink in supercaps come… you guessed it, inflation.

Exhibit 4 - Technetium price history
Source: EVE Online market data

Null sec grunts have taken a hard punch when their anomolies were knocked out according to true sec. This caused the second exodus of renters this year, only months after the first which occurred with the changing of hands in southern regions. Where do null bears go when they leave ratting systems? High sec beware, change is coming and it isn’t going to be pretty.
If that [inflation] does happen countermeasures would have to be taken in the form of increased sinks, reduced faucets or even higher taxes in the system. - QEN4 2010, p.32
Here's a bonus. Apparently the null bears spread out in Caldari regions.

Exhibit 5 - Federation Navy Fleet Colonel Insignia I price history
Source: EVE Online market data


The paradox of Incarna is clear; if inflation goes unchecked, players and an army of alts that rely on PLEX for subscription will leave while clueless new players try out EVE. It’s like pouring water into a bucket without addressing the hole at the bottom. What can we do? We’re the constituents of EVE Online. Managing a healthy economy is far more important than balancing factional modules. It is our right, even a responsibility, to seek improved conditions for the player base. Take some time off those heated guns to contemplate the rich-poor divide. Be a real hero and demand rightful change.

3 comments:

  1. Very impressive post.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Hey this blog is great keep it coming :D

    ReplyDelete
  3. Someone should give you an award, because this really predicted the current state of affairs in the Eve market.

    I left last September because it took an army of alts to keep up my subscription. In all, I was working 50-60 hours per week in Eve, and honestly, it just stopped being fun. I had 7 active accounts, doing mostly industrial and logistics, and a PI chain of 60 planets to support our tower fuel needs and to make money.

    After a shake up in nullsec, and 2 major relocation and realignments in 3 months, I just couldnt stand the idea of merging with yet another alliance that was supposed to bring us stability. To top that, the guys with the guns always complained that we weren't contributing enough to the pvp aspect of the game, all the while we're working our asses off just to supply the alliance srp.

    Now I'm trying again, with only one account.

    ReplyDelete